Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Data-Scarce Region Using a Scenario-Based Modeling Approach: A Case Study in Southeastern USA

Climate change may impact agricultural greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) and yields under higher temperatures, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, variable precipitations. This calls for adaptation strategies to optimize productions with minimal GHGs. study aimed identify these optimum managements in response current projected climatic scenarios the Choctawhatchee Basin Southeastern USA, an experimentally unexplored data-scarce region lacking validation data. scenario-based modeling analyzed a total of 1344 consisting four major crops, eight (varying tillage, manuring, residue), forty combinations as wells two representative concentration pathways process-based Denitrification Decomposition (DNDC) model. The results indicated that region’s GHGs were most affected by temperatures (≥+3 °C) extreme precipitation changes (≥±40%), while high concentrations exerted positive fertilization effects. manure-related residue incorporation found be better options varying climates present global warming potentials (GWP) 0.23 k −29.1 MT equivalent CO2. As such, presented climate impacts potential mitigation presenting framework design GHG similar regions.